Trading Notes: Halving TCL Technology, Clearing 2x Long Hang Seng

The market is always pricing in the future. When everyone is cheering for the certain past (earnings reports), traders must stare at the uncertain present (order book).

0x0 Dopamine and a Cold Shower#

This morning’s opening was a typical dopamine feast.

TCL Technology (000100) opened high and surged, at one point soaring nearly 9%. Watching the numbers on the screen turn a deep red (in China, red means up) and seeing the position I bought back just a few days ago instantly float a 7.4% profit—this “precise bottom-fishing + positive news explosion” script is enough to spike any investor’s adrenaline.

The catalyst was a beautiful report card: Last night’s announcement showed strong revenue expectations for 2025, with TCL CSOT’s net profit exceeding 8 billion yuan.

This is absolute fundamental good news. Logically, I should be resting on my laurels and counting my money. But after the brief excitement of lunch, my intuition (and that damn experience) started pouring cold water on me:

1. Sell the News: The stock price had already reacted to this news in the morning session but failed to seal the upper limit (limit up).
2. Order Book Language: There were massive sell orders hanging at the limit-up price, indicating that large funds were using the good news to “distribute” chips.
3. Déjà Vu: This “surge and fall back” script was just played out last week.

In the afternoon, sudden bearish news about “tightening margin requirements” hit the A-share market, and the index dived. The morning’s hesitation turned into the afternoon’s resolution—I hit the sell button.

0x1 TCL Technology: From Expectation to Realization#

This was a textbook expectation management operation.

Reviewing the Logic Chain:

• Buy Point: 5 days ago (Jan 9), a rational return after a round of family changes; this was a play based on technical oversold conditions.
• Explosion Point: Today (Jan 14), an emotional release based on fundamental news (8 billion profit).
• Sell Point: Intra-day afternoon, price broke below 5.08 RMB.

I chose to take profit on 50%.

graph TD
    Start[09:30 Open driven by good news<br/>TCL up 8%+] --> Check1{Limit up sealed?}
    
    Check1 -- "YES" --> Hold[Hold<br/>Confirm start of main wave]
    Check1 -- "NO (Heavy selling pressure)" --> Wait["Observe support<br/>(Noon Plan)"]
    
    Wait --> Event[13:00 Sudden Bearish News<br/>Margin costs rising]
    Event --> MarketDrop[Index Dives<br/>Price falls to 5.05]
    
    MarketDrop --> Action[Trigger Profit Taking]
    Action --> Execute[Sell 50% position @ 5.08<br/>Lock in 7.4% profit]
    
    style Start fill:#e0ffe0,stroke:#0f0
    style Event fill:#ffcccc,stroke:#f00
    style Execute fill:#cce5ff,stroke:#00f

This also verifies a view I’ve always held: Since we cannot predict what bad news might appear in the afternoon, when the morning market gives a premium, taking some of your money off the table is never wrong.

As long as you made money, it doesn’t stink.

0x2 Hang Seng Index: Leverage is the Enemy of Time#

If the TCL operation was a tactical “profit-taking,” then clearing the 2x Long Hang Seng Index position in the afternoon was a strategic dimensionality reduction.

This trade was also quite profitable, gaining over 10% from the bottom rebound. But my core logic for clearing it wasn’t because it stopped rising, but because of time cost.

In a margin account, leverage has an invisible tax. An 8% annualized margin cost means:

• If the market goes sideways, I’m losing money.
• If the market rises slightly, I’m just breaking even.
• Only if the market surges can I beat the cost.

0x3 US Stocks Hesitation and the “Wisdom of Empty Positions”#

Now, the pressure is on the US stock account.

Logically, I also want to reduce leverage in US stocks. Currently, US stocks are in an awkward high-level box oscillation zone:

• Bullish: It seems poised to break through previous highs at any moment.
• Bearish: It’s at the upper edge of the box, the risk-reward ratio is terrible, and the high-interest-rate environment hangs overhead like a sword.

This state of not quite rising, not quite falling is the ultimate test of human nature.

But I’ve decided to observe a bit longer.

When the direction is unclear, don’t force trades. Instead of getting slapped on both sides in a choppy market, it’s better to lower expectations and wait for the market to show a clear direction.

0x4 Conclusion: Cash is King Right Now#

Today’s operations can be summarized in one keyword: Contraction.

1. TCL Technology: Used good news to contract position size and lock in profits.
2. Hang Seng Index: Used high prices to contract leverage and avoid costs.
3. Overall Strategy: Shifted from an aggressive offensive stance to a defensive “ambush” mode.

When the macro environment starts to tighten (rising financing costs) and when individual stock good news fails to push prices to the limit up, the market is quietly telling you: “The wind is stopping, fold your wings for now.”

Today, I have fewer chips than yesterday, but a bit more peace of mind for a good night’s sleep.